Introduction
Many have castigated India govt for delayed response to corona threat, and for failure to visualize the migrants’ plight and exodus from the cities to the villages consequent to the lockdown. But none of them have offered any solutions.
Let’s look past the accusations. Let’s look at the facts. But to put these facts in perspective, let’s look at how the two largest democracies in the world, India and the US, have responded to corona.
India Govt
First corona case (2019-20) in India was detected on 30 January 2020. From 15 February 2020 (03 Corona cases) onwards, all Indians coming from corona-hit countries were screened for corona. Starting 03 March 20 (06 cases), visas to a few countries were suspended, compulsory screening of all international passengers (589,000 screened at airports, over one million screened at borders with Nepal) was done, borders were sealed and schools were closed in several states. Early to mid-March, Central govt drew up plans for additional quarantine and treatment facilities, for containment, for availability of protective and medical materials, for essential medicines and other essentials and plans to avoid panic situation. Sixteen corona-test kits were approved to rapidly build up testing capacity. On 24 March 2020 (519 cases), national lockdown was declared.
On 31 Mach 2020, India had 1,564 corona cases and 32 deaths.
On 31 March, the US had 1,88,530 cases and 3,889 deaths, though the first case in the US was on 20 January 2020, that is, just 10 days before the first case in India. And 200,000 Americans could die even if the US takes aggressive action.
US Govt
The US is not only the most powerful and the richest country in the world, it has world’s best academia, think tanks, and medical-research and patient-care facilities.
First corona case in the U.S.: 20 January 2020. President Trump on 22 Jan: “we have it totally under control;” on 19 Feb “I think the numbers are going to get progressively better as we go along;” on 23 Feb (28 cases), the situation is “very much under control.” Only on the night of March 11 (1,248 cases), did he acknowledge that corona was a serious threat.
“There is no reason for undue anxiety — the general risk remains low in New York. We are diligently managing this situation,” Andrew Cuomo Gov of New York, 01 March 20. On 31 March, New York, 75,983 cases and at least 1,550 deaths.
Only on 19 March (583 cases) did Gov. Gavin Newsom’s of California issue stay-home order; on 31 March California had 5.780 cases and 90 deaths. But Alabama Gov K Ivey has no plans to issue such an order: “we are not New York state, we are not California” she says.; on 31 march, Alabama, 999 cases, 13 deaths.
Alabama Gov K Ivey
India and the US govt Contrast
India govt’s response was quick and sure footed in contrast to the US govt which took time to realize the great threat that corona posed.
Future Shock
At a certain point, corona-infected growth become exponential. In the US the point was 15 March, 3,484 cases, from where it rose to 1,88,530 cases in just 16 days. We are at that point. And we have triggers that could spark the exponential growth.
Triggers such as the congregation of thousands – including hundreds from 16 corona-infected countries – since early march at Delhi’s Markaz Nizamuddin mosque. When over 1,900 were evacuated from the mosque on 29 March, 441 of them showed corona symptoms and 1,100 were quarantined. But by then most of the congregators, 824 of them foreigners, had spread-out to many states including the populous states of UP, Bihar and West Bengal. Out of them, 2,137 have been identified in different states and are being medically examined; 19 foreigners among them have tested positive; nine Indians among them have died of corona. Search is on for the remaining and how many of them will be found corona-positive we don’t know. But it certainly is a ticking time bomb.
Citizenry judges the political masters and the govt by the outcome, not by how well or ill planned and executed their actions were. If the outcome is good, they were good; if the outcome is bad, they were bad.
What outcome awaits Modi govt? Does a future shock await India?
Dr.(Prof) Sadhana Kala 